I propose my end date
I have always looked for patterns. With no clear end for the Coronavirus and the quarantine which has practically shut down our economy, I wanted to extrapolate some data and try to predict the end, when life can go back to normal.
Now, I’m no statistician, but I tried to use other areas of the world which went into a mandatory quarantine early, similar to how we’ve done in San Diego. I don’t think this will be the same for places like New York or Florida, which were late to the game. And I believe this will be somewhat accurate if we keep borders closed and continue with masks for workers and shoppers.
But if all goes well, I predict the first week of June to be when we no longer have new cases. We’d still have people hospitalized and perhaps some new deaths, but at least we won’t have any new cases. What happens after this is also important, for if we open travel back up, we’re going to see a possible reoccurrence.
What do you think? Am I too optimistic?